Are You Overpaying on Property in Texas? Here’s What to Do

Property owners in Texas face rising tax bills that can feel difficult to explain. A higher assessed value can increase yearly costs and create pressure on your budget. Many people feel unsure about what causes these changes and how to respond. This confusion can lead to paying more than necessary.

A Texas property tax protest becomes a practical option when these concerns arise. This guide explains simple steps you can take to review your situation and respond with clarity. Read this article to gain more knowledge and check these factors before your next notice arrives in Texas.

Check Your Assessment Notice Carefully

A close review of your assessment notice is the first step. Look at the details listed for your property and confirm that they match reality. Errors in size, features, or condition can raise your value. However, many owners overlook these details and accept the notice without question. Careful review helps identify mistakes early. Therefore, this step builds a strong base for any further action you may take in Texas.

Compare Your Property With Similar Homes

A comparison with nearby properties can reveal if your value seems too high. Look at recent sales and similar homes in your area of Texas. If those properties have lower values, it may indicate an issue with your assessment. Hence, this comparison helps you understand where your property stands. It also provides useful evidence if you decide to question the valuation.

Understand Local Market Trends

Property values in Texas change based on demand and local conditions. A rise in market activity can increase assessments even if your property remains the same. However, market changes do not always reflect the true condition of your home. Therefore, understanding these trends helps you decide if your value seems fair. Staying informed about local shifts can support your review process.

Review Exemptions That May Apply

Certain exemptions can reduce your property tax burden in Texas. These may include benefits for homeowners, seniors, or specific property types. Missing an exemption can lead to higher payments than required. So, check your eligibility and confirm that all applicable exemptions appear on your record. This step can reduce your tax bill without the need for further action.

Collect Evidence to Support Your Case

Strong evidence can make a difference when you question your assessment. Documents such as repair records, photos, and recent sale data can support your claim. However, weak or incomplete information may not help your case. Therefore, gather clear and accurate proof before moving forward. This preparation helps present a solid argument and increases your chances of a fair outcome.

Consider Filing an Appeal

A formal appeal gives you a chance to challenge your property value. The process may require forms, deadlines, and clear documentation. Hence, careful preparation is important before you file. Many owners choose a Texas property tax protest to present their case effectively. This step allows you to request a review and seek a fair adjustment to your assessed value.

Seek Professional Guidance if Needed

Some cases may feel difficult to manage without expert help. Complex details or limited time can make the process harder. However, professional support can provide clarity and direction. Experts understand local rules in Texas and know how to present strong cases. So, their guidance can improve your chances of success and reduce stress during the process.

Property taxes in Texas can feel overwhelming when values rise without clear explanation. A careful review of your assessment, local trends, and available exemptions can help you understand your situation better. Each step plays a role in reducing unnecessary costs. When you stay informed and take action at the right time, you can manage your property expenses with greater confidence and control.

Property Prices in Texas in the Last 10 Years

A Decade of Transformation

Few state-level housing markets in the United States have experienced a transformation as rapid, as broad-based, and as consequential as that of Texas between 2016 and 2026. What was historically regarded as one of the most affordable large-state markets in the nation has undergone a structural repricing driven by population growth, supply constraints, pandemic-era distortions, and monetary policy shifts that collectively redefined the cost of homeownership for millions of residents.

Tracing property prices in Texas in the last 10 years reveals not a simple upward trajectory but a three-phase arc: steady pre-pandemic appreciation, an explosive pandemic-era surge, and a post-2022 correction whose geographic unevenness continues to reshape the market.

Phase One: Steady Appreciation (2016–2019)

Between 2016 and 2019, the Texas housing market exhibited consistent, moderate price growth that tracked — and slightly exceeded — long-term historical averages. The statewide median home price rose from approximately $210,000 in 2016 to $241,358 by the end of 2019, representing cumulative appreciation of roughly 15% over four years (Reyes & Cuellar, 2025).

This growth was underpinned by robust fundamentals. Texas added approximately 1.5 million residents during this period, sustained by domestic in-migration from higher-cost states and international immigration drawn to the state’s employment base in energy, technology, healthcare, and logistics. Paciorek (2013), modelling the relationship between supply constraints and housing market dynamics, demonstrated that population inflows into markets with elastic housing supply produce moderate price increases, whereas equivalent inflows into supply-constrained markets produce sharper appreciation. Texas, with its relatively permissive land-use regulatory environment and abundant developable land, operated during this period as an elastic-supply market — absorbing demand with new construction rather than price escalation.

Phase Two: The Pandemic Surge (2020–2022)

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted this equilibrium. Between 2020 and the summer of 2022, the statewide median price surged from $269,000 to $360,000 — a 34% increase in roughly two and a half years (TRERC, 2026).

The drivers were multiple and mutually reinforcing. The Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cuts pushed 30-year fixed mortgage rates below 3% for the first time in history, dramatically expanding purchasing power. Remote work policies untethered employment from coastal office locations, releasing a wave of domestic migration into Texas. Between 2020 and 2024, the state added 2.01 million residents, of whom 76% arrived through net migration (TRERC, 2026).

Supply could not keep pace. Although Texas led the nation in building permits — issuing more than any other state in every year since 2008 — construction lagged demand due to supply chain disruptions, labour shortages, and rising input costs (Texas Comptroller, 2024). The result was a classic demand-supply imbalance in which excess demand was resolved through price escalation rather than inventory expansion.

Metropolitan Divergence

The statewide median obscures significant metropolitan variation. Austin, already a high-growth technology hub, experienced the most dramatic appreciation — a nearly 60% price increase between 2020 and its peak in 2022 (TRERC, 2026). Dallas-Fort Worth surged to a median of $430,000, a 43% gain over the same period.

Houston and San Antonio recorded above-average but comparatively moderate appreciation, reflecting their larger housing stocks and greater capacity to absorb demand through new construction. Eicher (2024), examining housing price determinants across 250 major US cities, confirmed that land-use regulatory restrictiveness is a significant predictor of long-run price growth, and that cities with fewer development constraints exhibit lower appreciation rates. Texas metros, while less regulated than coastal equivalents, still experienced supply frictions during the pandemic that temporarily overrode their structural elasticity.

Phase Three: Correction and Recalibration (2022–2026)

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening — 475 basis points of rate increases between March 2022 and March 2023 — abruptly altered the market’s trajectory (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2023).

Mortgage rates rose from under 3% to above 7% within eighteen months, reducing buyer purchasing power by approximately 30%. Statewide, median property prices in Texas in the last 10 years reached their peak in mid-2022 and subsequently declined by roughly 4%, even as they remained 28% above 2020 levels — averaging 5.4% annual growth across the full 2020–2024 period (TRERC, 2026).

The correction was geographically uneven. Austin, which had appreciated most aggressively, experienced the steepest decline — approximately 2.5% year-over-year by late 2025. San Antonio declined by approximately 1.8%. Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston experienced slower declines, with pricing pressure concentrated in the higher-end segments that had expanded most during the boom (TRERC, 2025).

The Affordability Erosion

The cumulative effect of a decade of price growth has fundamentally altered housing affordability in Texas. The Texas Comptroller’s 2024 report documented that median home prices rose approximately 40% between 2019 and 2023 alone, with the income required to afford the median-priced home increasing proportionally (Texas Comptroller, 2024).

By 2022, approximately 34% of Texas households were cost-burdened — defined as spending 30% or more of income on housing — with the figure exceeding 50% among renters. Up for Growth estimated the state’s housing shortage at 306,000 units, a deficit concentrated in but not limited to the major metropolitan areas within the Texas Triangle.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2023) explicitly warned that Texas’s cheap housing advantage was eroding, noting that rising costs could slow future population and business migration — the very engine that had driven the state’s economic expansion.

The Supply-Side Response

Texas has responded to affordability pressures with a supply-side expansion of historic proportions. In 2024, new housing starts registered the highest annual growth in a decade, outpacing even the peak of the pandemic construction boom (TRERC, 2025). By 2025, the share of new homes priced below $250,000 had climbed to 15–17%, and those below $300,000 reached 33–36%, reflecting a structural pivot by builders toward more affordable price points (TRERC, 2026).

This builder-driven affordability response is possible precisely because Texas’s regulatory environment permits rapid supply expansion — a structural advantage that supply-constrained states cannot replicate. The question is whether the pace of construction can sustainably match the pace of demand in a state that continues to attract hundreds of thousands of new residents annually.

Conclusion

Property prices in Texas in the last 10 years describe an arc that is simultaneously familiar and exceptional. The pre-pandemic phase (2016–2019) demonstrated the moderate appreciation characteristic of an elastic-supply market absorbing steady population growth. The pandemic phase (2020–2022) demonstrated what happens when extraordinary demand shocks — record-low interest rates, remote work migration, supply chain disruption — overwhelm even the most construction-friendly market in the nation. The post-2022 correction demonstrated the sensitivity of an overheated market to monetary tightening.

The net result is a state whose median home price, despite recent declines, remains roughly 28% above its 2020 level and approximately 60% above its 2016 level — a decade of appreciation that has enriched existing homeowners while progressively excluding first-time buyers. The policy and market responses now under way — record construction volumes, a structural shift toward lower price points, and the gradual absorption of elevated inventory — will determine whether Texas’s next decade resembles the affordability of its past or the price trajectory of the coastal markets it has long defined itself against.

References

Eicher, T. S. (2024). Housing prices and land use regulations: A study of 250 major US cities. Journal of Economic Analysis, 3(1), 45. https://doi.org/10.58567/jea03010002

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. (2023). Texas’ cheap housing edge slipping away as resilient demand outpaces supply. Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2023. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2023/swe2304

Paciorek, A. (2013). Supply constraints and housing market dynamics. Journal of Urban Economics, 77, 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2013.04.001

Reyes, M., & Cuellar, C. (2025). The evolution of Tyler’s housing market: A decade of transformation. Hibbs Brief, Hibbs Institute for Business and Economic Research, University of Texas at Tyler. https://www.uttyler.edu/academics/colleges-schools/business/centers/hibbs-institute/briefs/

Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts. (2024). The Housing Affordability Challenge. Austin, TX. https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/economics/2024/aff-housing/

Texas Real Estate Research Center. (2025). Texas Housing Insight: January 2025. Texas A&M University. https://trerc.tamu.edu/reports/texas-housing-insight-january-2025/

Texas Real Estate Research Center. (2026). Housing: Winter 2026. Texas A&M University. https://trerc.tamu.edu/article/housing-winter-2026/

Texas Real Estate Research Center. (2026). Housing: Spring 2026. Texas A&M University. https://trerc.tamu.edu/article/housing-spring-2026/